████    重点词汇
████    难点词汇
████    生僻词
████    词组 & 惯用语

[学习本文需要基础词汇量:6,000 ]

the numbers please and here they are our



consumer price index for the month of



april headline expected up two tenths is



up three tenths of three tenths and do



remember this is a big drop from up 1.2



last month which was the highest since



2005. if you strip out the all-important



food and energy expect it up four tenths



a bit more up six tenths up six tenths



the high water mark here is up nine tens



and that was in april of last year and



that went back to 1981 and the moneyball



year-over-year headline up 8.3 percent



oh my god



the duck's burnt you're cooking in a bin



pan you



dick



oh my god leave it leave it leave it



just believe it



you're gonna blow fire in your face yeah



donkey



all right



today is wednesday the 11th of may this



is a recap for the stock market



activities today and folks i got a good



one for you tonight but where do we



start the inflation crisis is spiraling



out of control and despite the cooks the



b-roll labor statistics best efforts



they cannot put a lipstick on a pig an



inflation is showing alarming signs



while the headline reading went down



from eight and a half percent to eight



point three percent the devil is always



always in the details on top of that



your beloved senile leaders from the



federal government and the federal



reserve remain at a site at a mine and



their priorities are completely



different from the american people and



the inflation crisis that they're



suffering from we're going to talk about



that a lot more i don't know about you



but i'm fired up and ready to go so here



it is in focus tonight



inflation nation the inflation crisis is



spiraling out of control and



unfortunately your deal leaders they're



nowhere to be found and even if they're



found they have different agenda



completely the interest in their heart



is not in this country in the interest



of this country let's start by this



stocks were bouncing up and down in a



sharpie trade because the stock market



was attempting to read the inflation



data the cpi also known as the cp lie



due to its tendency of downplaying the



true nature of inflation and the market



went up and down up and down within a



range but here's the problem by the end



of the day all indices went down and



closed negatively big time the nasdaq



for example lost over three percentage



points today alone on top of the



mounting losses it has been suffering



from for weeks now so what didn't the



market like because the headline reading



went from eight and a half percent last



month to eight point three percent this



month and of course you and i know all



of these readings mean nothing at all



the real numbers of inflation in this



country exceed twenty 20 just look at



rents and what's going on in the rental



market but the headline reads u.s



inflation slowed last month for the



first time since august and of course



the equities market likes this part that



perhaps inflation is speaking according



to the cooks at the bureau of labor



statistics and yes on face value



inflation is at 8.3 percent and strip



away food and energy and oxygen and



everything important and you get a



reading of around 6.2 here's the problem



when we look at the cpi components that



are reading over six percent growth year



over year we are now at the highest read



in history we've never seen this kind of



inflation this broad range inflation



even in the 1970s and hence the stock



market has a lot to think about besides



the headline reading inflation rating



month over month exceeded the experts



estimates and expectations by a wide



margin both for the price index and the



core price index and here it is look at



this when we look at the components of



the cpi the inflation and services went



significantly higher so did the



inflation of food yet the inflation in



goods went down slightly and then energy



inflation went down month over month by



a decent margin but before you start to



celebrate look at what happened today in



crude oil futures for example gasoline



futures natural gas futures all



exploding higher so whatever dip we got



month over month in the inflation in



energy that will be made up for and then



some in the next reading because look at



this crude oil production in the united



states went down for the first time



since january of this year and of course



the barton administration continues to



go on with their begging tour they



begged iran that's a no-go their big



iraq that's a no-go they begged saudi



saudi told them to get lost so did the



uae and then they begged venezuela



that's a no-go and now we're learning



that they begged brazil to produce more



oil and the brazilians told the body



administration to get lost too the



average gasoline price is at all time



highs in this country you're paying more



for gasoline you're paying more for



diesel and by the way the inflation in



diesel prices will be reflected across



all goods that we consume as truckers



and railroads have to pay more for



diesel so the stock market looks around



and says okay the headline rating went



down by two points due to the reduction



in energy inflation month over month



because we got a spike in february march



due to the invasion in ukraine but now



that spy cooled down here's the problem



energy prices are gaining ground the



fundamentals are getting worse the



supply is nowhere to be found the fed



remains way behind the curve in crushing



demand the excess demand in this economy



and on top of that we're seeing massive



shortages beating jet fuel desolate



inventories and even diesel inventories



and this will certainly push energy



inflation month over month higher again



in the next reading so there is no such



thing as peak inflation in areas where



we see peak inflation it's not a good



sign for example look at the prices for



online shopping well they're cooling



down they've already peaked now you



might say oh this is good news maverick



right inflation is peaking here's the



problem look at what happened to stocks



online shopping stocks like shopify etsy



wayfair amazon they're getting crushed



we're talking about losses of over 70



from the top these stocks predicted that



online shopping is peaking before we got



this data because the stocks of these



companies peaked last year in around



october and november so the stocks of



these companies were saying watch out



here the consumers activities and online



shopping will get crushed like you've



never seen before and it's not because



supply is ample now or the demand cooled



down it is because inflation is surging



out of control and the consumer has to



chase inflation so they cannot afford to



spend more in online shopping or



entertainment or dining out or soon



enough even traveling you're going to



see a lot of folks canceling their



summer plans why because prices at the



pump moving higher by the day prices of



utilities moving higher by the day rents



a surging out of control in certain



cases more than doubling we also have



the prices of food at the grocery store



surging out of control and the consumer



has to spend more in these areas in the



economy due to inflation and cut back on



these stimulative areas in the economy



such as online shopping dining out



traveling etc etc meaning that this is



an economy in stacked nation and soon



enough this economy will be in a



recession look at the baseline for



inflation i mean it's not even close



we're already in the wrong foot we're



starting on the wrong foot massive gap



between inflation in 2021 in 2022. you



think that's going to slow down anytime



soon of course not when you have



incompetent federal government an



incompetent federal reserve that



continues to be way behind the curve so



careless about inflation and their



priorities are obviously entangled in



globalist agenda wars and walkness



that's what it really is but doing their



core job in tackling inflation in



maintaining price stability forget about



that the american dream is dead now but



the fed doesn't even care because their



priorities are not your priorities now



when we talk about the headline reading



for inflation moving down slightly the



devil is always in the details and



here's the devil the index for meat



poultry fish and eggs increased 14.3



percent the largest 12 month increase



since the period ending may 1979



unbelievable and of course eggs prices



are not just rising due to regular



inflation monetary inflation also moving



higher due to the avion flu which killed



at least 10 percent of the nation's hens



look at the prices of eggs unbelievable



massive surge one of the core components



of breakfast in america the price is out



of control the prices of bacon added



control the prices of orange juice out



of control the prices of coffee out of



control meanwhile your wages are not



keeping up with this inflation net net



you're losing by the day you're working



for free is this america what's going on



here and the flu pandemic did not just



kill egg laying birds but also thousands



of turkeys ducks and other birds so



we're gonna have a massive shortage of



meat in this country and now economist



mohammed ellarian is saying that the u.s



is nearing a cost of living crisis we're



already here and it's getting absolutely



alarming take a look for a cold hard



lesson on inflation step into the



refrigerator where corina



goudino-wallink stores the food supplies



she just bought for her pop-up food



stamp business in phoenix arizona so



usually it would be the boneless would



be about a dollar a pound



right now it's 184 a pound this cheese



used to be nine dollars right now it's



on it's like 14.56 two years ago karina



opened up down to get tacos catering



special events inflation has upended her



business have there been events where



you've just lost money oh 100 percent so



these are from today as we look over



some of the week's receipts karina



explains the hardest impact of inflation



on a small business owner is how



unpredictable her world has become the



demand for her business is there



everything else is a nightmare and that



makes it hard for someone like you to



run your business correct it makes it



unbelievably



difficult for us to predict any pricing



i can't even say i'm going to charge you



a certain price right now because in



three days it's probably bound to change



you know and it's never for the better



phoenix arizona has one of the highest



inflation rates in the country the



latest statistics show it's three



percentage points higher than the



national average for cities and that



makes life harder for people living on



fixed incomes like geraldine spencer



this was the first one i ever did as she



shows us her painting skills geraldine



tells us she lives on seventeen hundred



dollars a month in social security she



says she pays six hundred dollars in



rent and at least three hundred dollars



a month pays for needed kidney and blood



pressure medications the rest of her



bills like home utilities car fuel and



groceries she finds depressing how hard



is it living on a fixed income it is



hard and i feel so sorry for my friends



that just don't have this kind of money



as much as i do because they're much



worse off than me so my compute is about



a block and a half which is real nice so



you can walk to work i walk to work



it's the best that's a cheap gas bill oh



i love it



the walk home from the ceramic shop



where katya schwartz works might save



her money on gas this is my humble abode



but the nights after work are filled



with dreads searching for a new place to



live in four months katya's rent for



this 300 square foot apartment is going



to jump from 670 dollars a month to just



over a thousand dollars she says her



paycheck won't cover it i would consider



living in my car yes i would



though my sister would never allow it



phoenix home prices have skyrocketed in



the last year apartments katya can't



afford are so far away that paying to



gas up her car would then beat too much



i would imagine that battling this at



this stage in your life is it's really



hard it's really hard



it's



it makes me feel useless



like



i'm not doing enough are you worried



that katya says she's at stage one panic



levels and the thought of what happens



next makes her quiver



ed lavendera cnn phoenix arizona and of



course as americans suffer from the cost



of living crisis and shortages all over



the place most notably right now baby



formula you cannot find baby formula at



all but joey b doesn't even care his



priorities his heart is somewhere else



it's not with us that's for sure and his



genius idea right now to tackle



inflation after the beg for oil tour did



not work out is to bow down to china and



cut tariffs on their products wow we are



in a full-blown crisis right now bad



decisions after bad decisions after bad



decisions with no stop and start at all



to the point where the wall street



journal is now saying president costanza



takes on inflation what does that mean



remember george costanza when hey do the



opposite of what you're thinking is



right because you have the tendency of



so just do the opposite and you'll be



fine i mean it's comical at this point



everything that joe biden does is the



wrong decision just do the opposite i



will be fine but rest assured here comes



your beloved senile leaders to the



rescue house approves 40 billion dollars



in inflation aid beefing up biden



requests yay



thank you the relief is here we don't



have to worry about rent utilities get



oh wait a minute wait a minute wrong



headline here it is house approves 40



billion dollars in ukraine



eight yep is ukraine part of the united



states now last time i checked so why



are we spending 40 billion dollars on



top of the 14 billion we've already



spent while we have americans suffering



here at home we have veterans homeless



sleeping on the streets under bridges



here in california but let's spend 40



billion dollars in the proxy war that



these senior leaders are launching



against russia because that's what it



really is take a listen i think we all



agree that most important thing going on



in the world right now is the war in



ukraine now this senile turtle says



what's the birth drink



with rick ran no the most important



thing going on right now is inflation in



this country who the hell votes



for this guy what is his priorities



obviously not the united states



obviously not the american people his



priority is ukraine the proxy war in



ukraine continuing



i had a chance to call the president



last week and request



that the ukraine package



move



by itself



and quickly



he said let me think it over he called



back in



about 15 minutes and agreed that we need



to do this



ukraine only



and quickly because a coward is leading



the fight and brutalizing his own people



turning them into



animals in the way they are treating



other people so again we think the size



of the package is significant because it



will enable the ukrainians to more



efficiently and quickly



to um to end to prop up my lockheed



martin calls they're about to expire i



gotta make some money here so let's ask



this aid and all these weapons to



ukraine now look at the urgency that



they have in helping ukraine not this



country they gotta think and debate and



take vacations i know maybe we cannot



afford it when it comes to helping this



country with crumbling infrastructure



all over the place with sky-high



inflation with an eviction crisis



coast-to-coast with the american dream



dead and being reduced to owning a van



right now but it doesn't matter they



don't care about you they care about



ukraine



to deal with the challenge that they



that they face



it's going to allow pensions and social



support to be paid to the ukrainian



people so they have something something



in their pocket yeah let's send ukraine



40 billion dollars so the ukrainians can



have something in their pockets not the



american people who are struggling to



pay the bills on the verge of bankruptcy



or on the verge of losing their jobs



down no no no it's all about ukraine



shut up keep your mouth shut and go with



the propaganda and the main narrative



line that we're selling to you and i



hope congress i hope congress will move



on this funding quickly i believe they



will but if putin loses then i think



that's a great day for europe a great



day for the united states we need to



triple down on our



willingness to help the ukraine we need



to pass a 33 billion dollar supplemental



package 20 billion for weapons we need



to work with the international criminal



court to gather evidence to prosecute



putin personally we need a resolution



that i have with senator blumenthal a



democrat to designate russia as a state



sponsor of terrorism



we need to pour on



put more weapons in theater that can uh



strike the russian military offensively



so i want to triple down on beating



putin so here it is again another senior



leader lane fee langley graham well



apparently when he's not a grinder he's



not working for you he's working on



tripling down and beating putin is this



how you beat poon mr graham here it is



whoops the u.s sent so many missiles to



ukraine that it depleted its own



stockpiles wow wow i guess ukraine is



more important than this country right



now sticking it to poo and walking out



by the way because the russian ruble



recovered all the losses since the war



started and the stupid sanctions started



and now trading at multi-year highs on



top of that while inflation is raging in



this country inflation actually cooled



down in russia so their currency is



recovering their inflation is going down



and oh by the way they're gaining



territory in ukraine and they're blowing



up our missiles and our weapons that



we're sending over there billions of



dollars of your taxpayer money blown up



in smokes and now the u.s spy chief



warning that putin is preparing for a



prolonged war in ukraine and it is



likely to become more unpredictable and



escalatory what are we doing here folks



but the question is what are our senior



leaders doing right now do they even



comprehend the risk that they're getting



us all of us into right now the risk of



a nuclear war the risk of these stupid



sanctions causing fertilizer prices to



move significantly higher and the



shortage is all over the place to the



point where we're now on the brink of a



starvation crisis a global starvation



crisis because wheat is not moving out



corn is not moving out meat's not moving



out but most importantly fertilizers not



moving out of russia or ukraine this is



a massive problem and our incompetent



leaders who are fixated on striker tapun



the proxy war they've already spent over



50 billion dollars in that war if this



is gonna be a prolonged war how much



more are we gonna spend 100 billion 200



billion and how would that rhyme with



the american public when we have a cost



of living crisis perhaps a recession a



very strong recession a very destructive



recession and layoffs all over the place



and when it comes to the fed the federal



reserve it gets even worse because you



wonder why the fed is screwing up all



over the place causing market



disruptions massive losses in the stock



market and landing us not in a soft



landing but in a massive crash where the



economy is going to crash big and this



recession will be unlike anything you've



seen before the biggest and the deepest



the most destructive recession we've



ever seen the tsunami of layoffs is



coming why because the fed remains



incompetent jerome powell is an



incompetent fool who should have never



been appointed as fed chair the man is



not even qualified to be a dog catcher



but this is the fed's priority hiring



the first black woman as governor



meanwhile they're screwing millions of



black women who cannot afford rent who



could not afford housing who cannot



afford groceries gas at the pump paying



their utility bills all what they want



is the woke token they say look at us



we're diverse



we're not guilty anymore but we're going



to continue to screw you the same way



and even worse and now that the fed is



way behind the curve and jerome powell



made a massive mistake of taking the 75



basis points out of the toolbox which by



the way he's gonna use not just the 75



but a full point in the next meeting he



will be forced to do it now the



likelihood is we're going to see larger



fed rate hikes and folks this is what



i've been warning about for over a year



now in this program the longer they wait



the longer they're behind the curve the



more destructive the approach in



tackling inflation has to be the more



forceful the tightening of the monetary



policy has to be if jerome powell



realized the problem last year and



started increasing interest rates by 25



basis points last year and stopped



purchasing mbs and bonds we would have



never gotten here with or without the



ukraine war but the man refused to even



use a formula to guide his inflation



target what could go wrong right and now



that he's way behind the curve he's



going to realize that inflation is



getting worse and it's not going to go



down in its own there is no such thing



as transitory inflation but what he's



going to do instead of using 50 basis



points the next meeting or even the 75



that he took off the table he's going to



be forced to use a full point and then



in the next meeting another full point



and by slamming their foot the fed that



is by slamming their foot on the brakes



moving from the accelerator all the way



to the brakes this will produce massive



destruction in this economy and we're



already seeing what that looks like



here's a former new york fit president



dudley listen to what he says how



disconnected are we right now from where



we need to go



i think the problem is that the federal



reserve has not been forceful enough in



stating not just what their goal is two



percent inflation but the means to



achieve that goal a chair pile in his



press conference last week didn't really



want to talk about why the monetary



policy might actually not just have to



go to neutral it might have to go to



tight and i think a tight monetary



policy is what's going to be required to



get inflation under control why are they



timid



it's not clear to me uh well it is clear



to me mr dudley because the fed jabron



pal remains so obsessed with the stock



market he's so afraid that he's gonna



say the wrong thing and freak out the



stock market well guess what his



strategy is already firing back because



the stock market is dropping like a rock



every single day with no stop inside



until the market realizes that we have a



competent fed we're not even close to



that they're not timid certainly they're



not timid about talking about what the



end goal is but to me if you're if



you're talking about the end goal two



percent inflation you gotta also



describe how you're actually going to



get there and if if you start to uh



sugarcoat it uh then financial



conditions don't tighten as much and you



also run the risk that people will lose



confidence in the federal reserve and



here it is financial conditions are



actually tightening the problem is when



the fed acts wishy-washy weaseling



around and peddling back on their



commitments to tackle inflation



financial conditions get loose once



again but you gotta remember there is



the financial conditions expectations



according to stocks and bonds then there



is the reality of financial conditions



of financial conditions in real life are



not going to tighten to the point where



it cools down demand in the economy as



the fed is supposed to do right now



because they have no control over supply



right now but they have control over



demand we know the demand is out of



whack there's no supply chain in the



universe that can cope with this insane



demand that was induced by the fed's



cocaine operation launching the biggest



tsunami of liquidity in human history



back in 2020 but again in reality



financial conditions are not gonna



tighten without the fed walking the walk



what does that mean without them



increasing interest rates aggressively



the fed funds rate has to go higher but



we're already seeing the evidence of



financial conditions tightening in the



stock in bond markets for example you



have stocks like carvana that crashed



big time the mania is over the bubble is



over the stock is down over what 80



percent from the top now bear in mind



that the executives already cashed out



at the top in this rigged game that we



call the stock market and the economy



but regardless when financial conditions



tighten and these stocks crash by 80



from the top you're gonna see the



ramifications in real life and here it



is carvan is already laying off



2500 employees via zoom of course and



this will be replicated across the



economy prepare for the tsunami of



layoffs because when the fed uses the



brunt force tools in crushing the demand



the economy to kill this inflation



monster there will be casualties the



casualties will be not the rich not the



oligarchs not the politicians but you



and i baby regular folks we're gonna



lose our jobs so the question is are you



prepared to lose your job or do you have



an insane credit card debt a mortgage



you cannot really afford rent you cannot



really afford car payment you cannot



really afford this is the time to start



asking these questions because you will



lose your job i promise you and it's



gonna be humiliating they're gonna do it



via zoom hey folks we're sorry we have



to cut some spending here so uh you lost



your job good luck bye no regard that



these employees have kids and have



payments and have obligations no regard



at all and you might say oh but the



government is going to give me



unemployment benefits and eviction



protection yada yada not gonna happen



this time around they cannot afford it



they can afford to send 40 billion to



ukraine but not to bail your ass out all



the billions are going to be available



to bail wall street out but not you so



are you taking things in your own hands



right now by paying down your credit



card debt by getting out of financial



obligations that you cannot really



afford by saving for at least nine



months worth of expenses or not this is



the time to get prepared here's the last



thought that i have from zven henrik he



says if only they had started sooner



what is this chart this is the fed



effective rate in blue which was zero



for a long period of time and then the



consumer price index for energy it went



down the moment the fed started



increasing interest rates now i've been



telling you in this program and



specifically in a video that i produced



before the real reason behind inflation



that they don't want you to know about



it is not a supply problem why did



prices at the pump in saudi arabia for



example surged significantly higher to



the point where the government had to



cap the increases last time i checked



saudi arabia has an abundant supply of



oil why are oil prices surging in mexico



last time i checked mexico as an



abundant supply of oil why is the price



at the pump rising in this country when



we have an abundant supply of oil and



yes production went down this month but



it has been at historic highs believe it



or not because inflation has always



always been a monetary phenomenon dr



friedman taught us this decades ago



inflation is not a supply problem



inflation is born when we have insane



money supply by central banks because



that money supply produces excess demand



whether you got the supply or not there



is no supply chain in the world that can



cope with this level of demand now you



sprinkle on a war in ukraine and



shutdowns due to the thing the great



panic of the virus and now you have



supply going down and demand surging out



of whack and people are wondering why we



have inflation this is the worst



inflation dynamic that we've ever seen



but look at the magic the moment the fed



starts tightening the monetary policy



all of these prices go down magically



again this is the lesson inflation is



gonna die at some point we're gonna move



on but never forget this lesson you



should have never forgotten it to begin



with inflation is not a supply problem



inflation has always always been a



monetary phenomenon now with that folks



let's move on to cover the stock market



information for you and we start with



the performance of indices today and



here we go



the dow industrial average down by



326.63 points or a decline of around 1



the nasdaq down big losing



373.44 points or a decline of 3.18



the s p 500 down by 65.87 points or a



decline of 1.65



the sector's performances led by energy



at number one capturing the gold medal



the number two for the silver utilities



number three for the bronze materials on



the other hand the laggards of the day



led by consumer cyclicals technology and



healthcare so we're now back to the



inflationary theme of energy and



materials this is becoming extremely



confusing for market participants



because you see days where they dump



energy they dump the defensives and the



inflationary names and they go with



technology and cyclicals and we see



these attempts of a rebound rally in



these names technology cyclicals etc but



they're always met with failure and as a



result market participants go back to



what's been working year to date in this



case energy utilities materials



defensives so again i continue to say



stick with the winners at least for now



until things change and for now things



are not changing so we're sticking with



energy fertilizers the consumer staples



because they've been working that's all



we have for now the advance to decline



ratios nyse 27 advancing versus 70



declining the nasdaq 18 advancing versus



78 percent declining commodities look at



this speak inflation you said well it's



not here crude oil futures went higher



wti gained almost six percent today



alone brent gained almost five percent



massive massive gains for crude likewise



gasoline prices gained almost four



percent today alone this is what you're



gonna pay by the way at the pump so



again inflation is surging out of



control the fed is way behind the curve



so we will see inflation surging higher



again and therefore in this channel



we're sticking with commodities energy



stocks fertilizers materials the



consumer staples the defensives because



things are not changing in the inflation



front if anything the market is saying



we don't care about the cpi that we got



today we don't care about what the fed



is saying the fed is not even close so



we're going to continue to buy the dips



in energy gas commodities and this is



exactly what we're seeing here heating



oil futures gained around half a



percentage point today and natural gas



continues to move higher by the tune of



almost three and a half percent today



alone of course we have news that the



ukrainians are now stopping the flow of



gas from russia because the pipelines go



through ukraine and ukraine is shutting



the pipelines now of course our



propaganda media says that the



disruptions are happening from



pro-kremlin troops whatever that means



but we know the ukrainians came out and



said we're shedding the gas supplies the



ukrainians are now punishing europe



saying hey we're cutting the gas supply



entirely you guys don't want to do it



you're afraid that your economies are



going to go down well we're going to do



it for you we're going to drag you into



this war with russia physically and



economically so what do you think is



gonna happen to natural gas prices in



europe well they're surging higher no



doubt about it but what is the



substitute for now us lng so natural gas



prices in this country will continue to



move higher and higher and higher we're



sticking with natural gas stocks for



this particular reason with a bad softs



we have a down day for lumber losing



around two and a quarter percent and



then we have a down day for oj but oj



has been running higher significantly



for a while now although today lost



around one percent and then we have



sugar pretty much in the flat line well



we have gains big one massive gains for



coffee futures scoring over seven and a



half percent today alone cotton moving



higher cocoa moving higher and here it



is meadows it was a good day for meadows



all in all with the exception of



palladium palladium went down by all bad



one and a half percent the dollar did



not move higher today interesting the



dollar was flat and flat is good enough



for metals to move higher can you



imagine what would happen to metals if



the dollar cools down for real we will



see gold moving higher silver platinum



copper all moving higher and i am liking



copper here by the way i'm buying the



dip in copper i think copper is going to



move higher from this point on despite



the lockdowns in china and all of that



and of course instead of buying copper



futures i already own fcx freeport



mcmoran i'm adding to my position via



calls this is how i'm buying the dip in



copper but regardless gold gained a



little over half a percentage point so



did silver and platinum the winner of



the day gaining almost four percent



today meets down day for both lean hogs



and feeder cattle futures losing around



one percent a piece yet we have live



cattle futures gaining almost one



percent when it comes to grains here it



is we have gains big ones for soybean



oil scoring three percent gains today



alone likewise wheat scoring around two



percent corn moved higher along with



soybeans and oats rough rice with modest



gains at around half a percentage point



yet it was a down day for both soybean



meal and canola futures losing some



ground by about one percent apiece



moving on to the big casino the options



market what's going on here look at the



volume dead no movement at all they're



not buying calls and therefore we're not



finding a bottom once we see



participation and buying calls we can



say we have a bottom in the stock market



for now it's a free fall the gravity is



to the downside and the reason is



nobody's buying calls if anything



they're buying more puts now bidding for



more downside regardless of that apple



came at number one the hottest table in



the casino today with around one and a



half million contracts traded today 53



and a half percent of those were calls



and at number two tesla at around 600



000 contracts traded for the name today



around 46 percent of those were calls



number three neat video at around 450



000 contracts exchanging hands today or



about 60 of those were calls but all in



all the volume is down it's not even



close to last year moving on to the



unusual activities that took place in



the options market today we have a call



option spread for apple if you're going



to play a rebound you might want to



follow this one because the risk versus



reward is worth it now apple went down



big today over five percent were seeing



liquidation of course i shared the story



of my clients who dumped over 16 million



dollars worth of apple stock last week



and today they called me ecstatic



they're so happy we got it right we



dumped the apple and look at that it's



down five percent today but if you



happen to be in the camp who thinks



perhaps apple went down too much in a



short amount of time and perhaps we have



a rebound coming maybe short covering



profit taking by the end of the week



this is a good trade to be in because



they bought the 155 calls the expiration



date may 20th and they sold the 160



calls for the same expiration date and



the goal from the trade here is by the



expiration date of friday next week if



apple moves higher by more than six



percent but now more than nine percent



by then this trade will be profitable i



mean it doesn't matter if apple moves



more than nine percent because your



profits are capped over there but you're



hoping that apple moves by more than six



percent by the end of next week they



paid around one buck apiece for buying



the 155 calls they received around 40



cents in credit from selling the 160



calls all in all the entry cost is



reduced to around 60 cents a piece which



brings the total all the way to 1.2



million dollars and again the risking 60



cents to make five bucks in my book the



risk versus reward is worth it if you



happen to believe that apple is gonna



rebound what about the ticker oxy



oxidant petroleum one of the top



performers here today but it was down



big on monday and of course you wanna



buy the dip in these names energy



fertilizers materials because these are



the names that are gonna rebound higher



again we saw folks scooping the dip



right away here's somebody playing the



dip via buying calls and they're buying



the 67.5 calls for the expiration date



june 17. with the expectations the name



could move higher by more than 12



percent by then they paid around two



bucks and a half a piece to enter this



trade all in all spending around five



and a half million dollars what about



the trade for the ticker t wtr twitter



they're buying puts this time around



interesting even though we have the deal



with musk and the buying price is above



50. so you got it in the bag if the musk



deal goes on you got it in the bag the



stock is going to close at 50 plus but



here we have somebody betting that the



stock is going to go down to 40. so



what's going on here is this the bed



that we will see the twitter deal



falling apart who knows but they're



buying the 40 bucks puts for the



expiration date june 17th with



expectations the name could move down by



more than 13 percent by then they paid



around one buck apiece to enter this



trade all in all spending around 1.2



million dollars what about the trade for



the ticker dal delta airlines they're



buying calls interesting they're buying



the 42 calls for the expiration date



june 17th with expectations the name



could move higher by more than 11



percent by then they paid around one



buck apiece to enter this trade all in



all spending around one million dollars



continuing with interesting trades what



about the ticker s e for c limited today



we saw a rebound in roblox electronic



arts also gained ground even though they



lost the licensing deal with fifa and



somebody's bidding that we could see



more m a activities in the video game



arena and in this case they're actually



bidding against c limited perhaps we



will see an acquisition by this company



and therefore the stock goes down so



they bought the 50 bucks puts for the



expiration date june 17th with



expectations that the name could go down



by more than 12 and a half percent by



then they paid around five bucks and a



half a piece to enter this trade all in



all spending around five and a half



million dollars and then we have a call



spread for amd and again the risk versus



reward is pretty decent here but i do



like the apple trade a lot more anyhow



they're buying the 100 calls and they're



selling the 105 calls all for the



expiration date june 17th and the



expectations here is for amd to move



higher by more than 14 percent by then



but preferably not more than 19 and a



half percent by then it doesn't matter



if it does because the profits are



capped the most important condition here



is for amd to move by more than 14 by



the expiration date of june 17th in this



case they paid around three bucks apiece



for buying the 100 calls and they



received around two bucks apiece from



selling the 105 calls by doing so



reducing the entry cost to one buck a



piece all in all spending around nine



hundred thousand dollars and lastly what



about the ticker tsla the souffle tesla



the buying puts the stuff i mean tesla's



falling apart at this point you know



that right so all of these test



localities or teslas of the future



abroad never gonna go down watch out for



the bears because they're piling in and



they're gonna rip your face apart in



this case they're buying the 600 puts



for the expiration date may 20th with



expectations that tesla could fall apart



by more than 18 percent by then they



paid around six bucks apiece to enter



this trade all in all spending around



three and a half million dollars moving



on to the heat map analysis look at this



a bloodbath there was some optimism



yesterday of rotating from reits and



utilities and defensives all the way



back to the big caps technology software



etc not happening not happening at all



we're seeing big caps down big apple



microsoft facebook amazon tesla chips



are down big software damn big cyclicals



are down big any attempt in reviving



these names that lasts for a day or two



and then we see them moving down again



and therefore i say if you're looking



for shorts meaning going short from now



till the end of the year for example do



you short the software names some



already down 70 from the top you're too



late but you got the cyclicals the



so-called reopening names casinos hotels



cruises all of these are still elevated



due to the reopening optimism they're



gonna fall apart along with the big caps



and the tech names today obviously the



theme is risk-off not rescon and the



evidence is the underperformance of



biotech versus the big pharma old-school



names yes they were down but not by a



lot they were muted a matter of fact



certain names actually closed in the



green like merck and eli lilly but the



action right now in this stock market is



very very limited it is limited to



energy that's going to come down at some



point we don't know when but we're going



to continue to be with energy until the



party's over likewise we're seeing



fertilizers bouncing back in materials



we're seeing utilities the ultra



defensives in utilities and reads also



bouncing be it not with conviction we're



also seeing the defensives bouncing a



little bit but again no conviction here



yet we're seeing tobacco for example



philip morris one of the top performers



today and at some point folks this stock



market will be reduced to what the



alcohol tobacco what else mcdonald's



these happen to be some of the names



that tend to outperform under a



recessionary environment in the stock



market along with some big pharma of



course some of these staples but the



options are getting limited here folks



at some point we're gonna have to



abandon the long portfolio entirely and



just move to shorts shorts and cash



until the bleeding stops and of course



we're talking about energy stocks watch



out here because you got your boy jimmy



kramer and jimbo says that he's buying



more oil he likes oil now so watch out



jim cramer might jinx the ratty in oil



because this is the same guy by the way



who said two years ago that oil is dead



and there is no money to be made he said



that oil and gas are uninvestable and



his reasoning was pollution and the



environment and yada yada we also got



news for starbucks apparently uh



actor james cromwell who appears in



succession the tv show he's actually



good he's not a bad actor at all but



he's protesting starbucks is protesting



the up charges for vegan milk and he did



it by gluing his hand to the table so



starbucks is under a lot of pressure the



unions from the international markets



slowing down and now we have folks



protesting the up charges for vegan milk



and i say what do you want starbucks to



do just hand out coffee for free look at



the prices of oat milk almond milk soy



milk all moving significantly higher



what do you want the company to do lose



money not gonna happen i mean the coffee



sucks to begin with tastes like ass it's



overpriced but it is convenient i got a



starbucks by my house you don't like it



go somewhere else or better yet make



your coffee at home but again these are



the kind of pressures that companies are



going through they're accused of price



gouging some are doing a lot of price



gouging but in this case i mean it is



obvious differences of prices between



whole milk between almond milk soy milk



oat milk all of these prices are jumping



significantly higher it's going to be



reflected in the prices you're going to



pay at the grocery store and at



starbucks if you choose to drink vegan



milk anyways we're moving on to the heat



map for the etfs bloodbath across the



board not evident in international



markets that's interesting we'll see if



we're going to have a follow-up for



example if we see a bloodbath in asian



and european equities overnight we got a



confirmation that what happened in the



u.s markets is contagious but the



interesting theme is the comeback of



commodities and this is evident by the



ewz as an ad performer today the



brazilian commodities giant etf



commodities be it gold be it oil be it



ung gas be it silver all moved



significantly higher here we have



massive down days for uranium and solar



and obviously values outperforming



growth it appeared yesterday that growth



was planning for a rebound after the cpi



didn't happen and now we're seeing both



of them down but value continues to



outperform growth another interesting



theme is the fact that the vix proxies



are actually either flat or down the uv



xy was down the vxx was up slightly but



the vix the index itself was down the



volatility index was down even though



we're seeing massive sell-offs in s p



and in the nasdaq so what's going on



here the divergences will be fixed one



way or the other either the vix is going



to pop significantly higher or the vix



is saying that the selloff in the



equities market is overdone it's going



to reverse soon we'll see but for now



look at the etf's technology down across



the board be it chip speed the old



school xlk financials damn big look at



healthcare xlv which has the old school



big pharma names big insurance names



down slightly but the xbi the risk on



biotech is down big we're talking seven



percent to the downside consumer



cyclicals xly xrt down big not a good



sign for the economy and what's working



is energy xop xle barely utilities the



xlu again barely that's it weakness



across the board certainly not an



exciting market to be a bull but this is



a lot of excitement for the bears who



continue to short and score let's move



on here and do some charts before



wrapping up when we start with sp why 30



minutes chart i'm going to be honest



with you folks there is nothing to look



at here the resistance was 405 it was a



bullet lag pattern waiting for the cpi



to launch higher the cpi came out



disappointing for the equities market



and therefore no buyers nobody excited



to buy the dip so the equities market in



this case the sby took another leg down



and there is no support close inside so



there is nothing to look at here it's a



free fall the stock market is in a free



fall we have to wait for the stock



market to give us any sign for a



reversal or a bottom so for now you



gotta stay short until we get any sign



that this is over and for now we don't



have any sign that it is over here's the



daily chart for the continuous contract



of the spy the chart is losing



3960 and the next support in my



perspective is



3850 the momentum indicators are weak



yes they're getting overextended to the



downside but who's to say that we're not



going to see even more pain to come the



volume is moving higher on down days all



bad signs for the bulls so the bears



have to stick to their ground here until



we see any sign of a reversal and so far



the fed meeting did not help the rebound



faded away right away the cpi did not



help and any attempt for a rally faded



away right away so the bulls are running



out of catalysts and the bears have a



clear ground now something gonna save



the bulls and in my opinion it will be



an emergency meeting by the fed



indicating that they're gonna increase



interest rates and do whatever it needs



to be done to tackle inflation otherwise



when a market has no faith in the fed at



all you're gonna see a free fall like



we're seeing right now of course again



for all of the dip buyers you're not



alone but you gotta be careful here



because i tried to buy the dip last week



and the week before that didn't happen i



told my viewers if the support of 4102



is broken you got to go short again the



shorts the bears have to double down and



so far so good let's see if the next



support



3850 produces a rebound or not but



here's the bad news look at the spx the



daily chart for the cash index remember



the y cough pattern that we talked about



before it has been spot on so far and



according to the wyckoff pattern if the



support of the secondary test which is



4114.65



is broken we go down 12



on top of that the very important



psychological support of 4 000 is broken



now so if we go down 12 percent



according to the white calf pattern from



the secondary test we're going to be



down at around 3 600. i'm not saying



it's going to happen i'm just saying it



could happen because the white coff



folks have been accurate so far so why



would they be wrong now here's the 30



minutes chart for the qs the nasdaq



again the last support of 297.5 is



broken again any attempt for a pop after



the cpi faded away because the buyers



are nowhere to be found nobody's buying



calls everybody's scared nobody's buying



the dip here everybody's assuming that



it's going to get a lot worse we're



going to see the unwinding of this



bubble that has been in the making for



over 20 years now when you really think



about it but on top of that we have



fears of a recession we have an



incompetent federal government we have



an incompetent federal reserve why would



you buy the dip what will it encourage



you to buy the dip would you when you



have no faith at all in the leadership



so again you look at this chart there's



nothing to look at at all there is no



support this is a free fall so let's



move on to the daily chart for the



continuous contract for the nasdaq and



look at this i'm zooming out now because



i want to show you the next support that



i have which is around eleven thousand



fifty eight and a half we're not even



close the chart could flush down all the



way down there and we could see when



that happens oversold conditions that



could merit a technical rebound i don't



know what's gonna rescue the equities



market now the cpi didn't do it the fed



didn't do it it's hard to see it's hard



to see any catalyst any tailwind to get



us a rebound so you gotta stay short



until you get a signal this is over



here's the russell 2000 the iwm and



hourly chart and it's not looking good



for the small caps it lost the most



important support the last support of



188 so it's a free fall from this point



on and what if this is a formation of an



abc pattern we got the a leg we got the



b of the rebound and now we're about to



form the c and the c is going to get us



down perhaps to 165. so you better watch



out here here's the dixie the enemy of



the stock market the enemy of



commodities specifically precious metals



right now it didn't cool down it didn't



blast tire but it didn't cool down



either as if the dollar saying i don't



buy it the fed will have to be even more



aggressive to tackle this inflation



because there is no peak inflation now



until and unless we see a big flush down



in the dollar and that will happen by



two things number one inflation



expectations moving down and as a result



we see expectations for fed tightening



moving down that could flush the dollar



down it is highly unlikely though number



two if we see strength in a foreign



currency a major one like the british



parent for example the euro the yen but



none of that is happening right now the



british pound is falling apart the euro



is falling apart the japanese yen is



being devalued so we're not seeing any



solid headwind for the dollar to move



down here's gold the good news is we



have a rebound from the fibonacci



support and we're keeping the trend line



that's supposed to act as support so so



far so good but we're not going to see



gold spiking higher and producing



another ratty without the dollar and the



10-year yield cooling down i'm not gonna



give you advice to sell to buy i'm just



gonna say if you're sitting on gains you



gotta assess here do you have conviction



the dollar is gonna cool down or the



10-year yield is gonna cool down at some



point if that is your conviction then



gold is going to move higher and do your



decisions accordingly buy the dip add to



your position whatever you need to do



but if you believe that the dollar is



going to continue to move higher along



with interest rates the 10-year yield



yes the tailwinds are strong for gold



but it's gonna struggle to move higher



in the way you like it to be so long as



these two continue to move higher so



again make your decisions accordingly



here's the four hours chart for crude



oil it was a wild session by the way it



was distant to go down 100 the last



support but then we saw conflicting



information oil was down as the european



equities were trading but after the



european close we saw u.s equities



falling apart and oil moving higher



significantly recapturing 105 84 support



what is the message here i'm not going



to jump into conclusions i gotta wait



and see if we have a confirmation of



this move or not the confirmation would



be a retest of 105.84 and then bouncing



higher again if that is the case then



crude will give it another shot at 114



if it passes that test it goes to 118.



but if it fails a retest of the support



of 105.84 it moves down to 100 once



again and here is natural gas the henry



hub a daily chart we talked about the



center of gravity in the chart acting



both as support and resistance and guess



what the chart went down and retested



the trend line and it produced a rebound



so so far so good for now the assumption



is natural gas should make higher highs



to keep this pattern alive the problem



is you look at the rsi the momentum



indicator it is a negative divergence so



the move to make higher highs will be



extremely difficult for natural gas



technically speaking but technicals is



just one element that moves assets up or



down the fundamentals matter too and we



discussed the fundamentals now we have a



shutdown of gas from russia to european



destinations this will add more demand



for liquid natural gas here from the us



and here's the 10-year yield the daily



chart it's not going to make it above



the steep trend line again so we're



seeing a cooling down of the 10-year



yield but market bulls are hoping the



cooling down in momentum for the 10-year



yield should produce a massive flush



down all the way to two and a half



percent for example that would be good



for the nasdaq and for the beaten down



technology names the rkk types to



rebound higher but we're not seeing this



for now we're seeing that yes the



momentum indicators are cooling down but



they're cooling down via consolidation



in a mini pullback the 10-year yield is



maintaining 3 percent for now until and



unless we see a flush down in the



10-year yield this is a sign of strength



indicating that the 10-year yield wants



to move higher not lower it is working



out the over-extension in the momentum



indicators via consolidation and then



once that's worked out it moves higher



again not a good sign for the pulls or



the bond bulls for that matter look at



the tlt a weekly chart yes the tlt moved



higher it is oversold we could see a



short covering ratty you better hope it



gets us all the way to 125.12



closing the gap but again that would



only happen if the 10 year yield flushes



down so all of these pops you gotta take



them with a grain of salt in the tlt



here's the vix and the mystery of the



vix by the way four hours chart the



queue is down big the sp why down big



cern equities individual names down big



the vix is not responding market



participants are not hedging anymore



what's going on here the vix is



maintaining 33 as resistance for now it



maintains a lower high it maintains



negative divergences on both the rsi and



the macd all pointing out the vix should



go down if that is the case that is what



we're seeing in the stock market right



now a bear trap we could see an



explosive short covering rally or is the



vic saying there is complacency here and



the divergence the gap will be closed



out when we see another panicky day in



the stock market we see equities down



big and we see the vix finally popping



higher and catching up with the move in



stocks as we see market participants



hedging once again of course the hedging



will be triggered if we have key support



lines broken we've already broken 4000



in the spx we haven't closed below 4 000



for the week but maybe if that happens



that triggers a lot of hedging for now



it is an intriguing mystery because



you'd think the vix should be popping



higher with the nasdaq is down three



percent when the big caps are melting



but it's not the case one of these two



is lying is it the spy playing a opossum



or is it the vix being shy for now it's



going to pop higher again sooner or



later we'll see but the case remains the



same for the vx in the vix for the



nasdaq it is not moving higher the vix



is down 3 vx and pretty much flat



holding at 40. it still has positive



momentum but why isn't it moving higher



frankly i don't have the answer but we



will find out the answer very soon



either the nasdaq is going to blast tire



in a short covering rally and the



message from the vxn right now is what



are you seeing in the nasdaq is a bear



trap because folks are not hedging or



it's going to be the opposite we're



going to see another massive leg down in



the nasdaq another massive leg higher in



the vxn and what the vxn is saying right



now what you're seeing is a complacency



by market participants who are choosing



not to hedge we'll see here's apple look



at this ugly ugly action by apple the



most important name in the stock market



by the way the volume is moving higher



on the down day the momentum indicators



are falling apart apple lost the support



of the lower edge of the trend line the



channel it lost 150 of support and now



it's looking at 145 for support here's



the problem for apple we zoom out to a



weekly chart we have a defined trend



line right now and the chart is pretty



much exactly at the trend line you break



that trend line and the floodgates will



open right away because when we use the



fibonacci levels if that trend line is



broken we could see apple moving down



another nine percent before we have



support according to the fibonacci



levels what about tesla an hourly chart



again it is losing all key supports it



lost 825.25



it did not make it above



802.41 and the next support i have is



around 700 on the hourly chart but when



we zoom out to the weekly we use the



fibonacci supports the next support is



not going to be found until let's say 6



40 which will be another downside of 13



plus from this point on moving on to



tulips ptc what's going on here the



flush dam continues it is getting



oversold but look at this watch out 30



000 is lost to support if we don't have



a rescue moment by the end of the week



and recapturing 3 30 000 excuse me as



support it's about to get really really



ugly in the tulips market why when we



zoom out to a weekly chart we have the



bear flag playing out but we got



important support at 28 000. so if 30



000 is broken you got 28 000. if that's



broken we use the fibonacci levels we're



going to go down another let's say eight



percent to what eighteen thousand twenty



thousand that's going to be ugly and we



will see a lot of margin calls if that



happens if bitcoin crashes to twenty



thousand and below you're gonna see



margin calls across stocks tesla would



go down your video would go down apple



would go down big because they got to



pay for all these margin calls and



lastly amc i'm gonna stop covering amc



because it's gonna go down to zero i



wish i had better news for the apes but



game over if we use the fibonacci levels



in a weekly chart from this point on it



could go down another 81 to the next



support at around two two and a half



bucks and if it goes down there you're



gonna see margin calls again but most



importantly you will see the bankruptcy



of the company and lastly moving on to



the conclusion of this video what do we



have on the economic calendar tomorrow



we have initial jobless claims we also



have the ppi producer price index this



is the final reading and then we have



another fed zombie from san francisco



daily speaking who cares at this point



if you're not going gonna come out and



say these 75 basis points on the table



again nobody's interesting to hear



anything here with that folks i'm done



here this is all i got for you for now



thank you for listening thank you for



watching i will talk to you again



tomorrow when the money's coming your



way you don't ask any questions



you